Paper Title
Forecasting Chinese Outbound Tourist to Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand Destinations: A Study of State Space Approach

Abstract
This article aims to forecast the Chinese outbound tour¬ism demand of mainland Chinese residents for Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand (SMT) from 2018 to 2022 and investigate the impact factors of outbound tourism demand. The empirical results show that the income level of tour¬ists is the most critical factor affecting inbound tourism demand, it has a positive effect on tourism arrivals; the effects of tourism prices, substitute prices, and accidents are different and they are all negative effects. Finally, this paper found that BSM model in state space form prediction is the most accurate of the three estimation methods and use it to predict the amount of tourists in next five years; the biggest increase was in Thailand, followed by Singapore and Malaysia and give relevant recommendations for the actual situation. Keywords - Forecasting, State Space Models, China, SMT