Modeling Climate Change Effects on Urban Areas
Since the industrial revolution, usage of fossil fuels, deforestation, changes in land use and greenhouse gases released to the atmosphere from industrial processes have increased. Climate change affects the environment, especially the hydrological cycle which have direct impacts on water resources. Besides, it is well-known that impervious and pervious areas in a watershed have considerably modified water quality with urbanization. Impervious areas block the infiltration of rainfall to the soil and as it turns to runoff and affects directly the water quality. The aim of this study is to determine total coliforms which come from the impervious areas of the city of Eskişehir in the Porsuk Stream Watershed, in Western Inner Anatolia of Turkey. The HSPF model (Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran) developed by United States Environment Protection Agency-EPA has been used. The pollution has been modeled using a pessimistic scenario, A2, and an optimistic scenario, B2. The scenarios are Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It has been found out for both scenarios, that until 2100 total coliform concentrations in the Porsuk Stream will increase by 25%.
Index terms - Climate change, modeling, water quality, impervious areas