Inventory Management Using Demand Forecasting Modelfor Medical Supplies In Surgery Department
The objective of this study is to improve inventory management for medical supplies in the surgery department at a hospital. There are problems, such as high variations, less inventory turnover rate and high unnecessary cost, caused by unknown statuses of medical supplies and lack of demand forecasting. The countermeasures comprises of, first, using ABC analysis to classify the categories of medical supplies; and, second, usinga demand forecasting model. The ABC classification analysis shows that the percentage of items (percentage of value) are8.35%(78.30%), 35.73%(12.70%), and 55.92%(9.00%)for A, B, and C category items respectively. Then, the category A is classified into 4 subcategories based on the Average Demand Interval (ADI) and the Square Coefficient of Variation (CV2). The erratic demand (A-3) and lumpy demand (A-4) subcategory, which have high variation, are chosen to forecast demand. Afterthe demand forecasting model is presented, trend-corrected exponential smoothing model (Holt’s model) is chosen for demand forecasting of these medical supplies inventory. The result of the improvement shows that the variation, turnover rate and unnecessary cost are improved 21.97%, 5.00%, and 50.34% respectively.
Index Terms– Inventory management, ABC analysis, Demand forecasting.