Paper Title
Timing Decision Strategy Of Releasing New Product By Considering Existing Product Life-Cycle And Competitor Strategy

Abstract
Commonly, the innovative product has a short life-cycle due to customer�s demanding of a new product. Once a new product was released, the sales of the existing prodcuts will be decreased. On the other hand, there is competitor whose ready to release similar new product. If competitor release new product earlier than object company, then new product of object company cannot reach its potential sales. So that, it is needed to provide a model to calculate the best time of releasing new product to maximize company�s profit. This research proposed a modification of Holt model to forecast demand of new and existing product. After the demand forecast was captured, then the process continues to calculate expected profit of each alternative period using expected monetary value (EMV) to find the best time to release new product. Index Terms- Timing Decision Analysis, Holt Model Modification, Expected Monetary Value (EMV)