Paper Title
High-Resolution Modeling of Socio-Economic and Climatic Scenarios: Impacts on Biogenic and Anthropogenic Co₂ Fluxes (2015–2050)

Abstract
The local effects of socioeconomic scenarios have been evaluated at a detailed spatial scale, focusing on four socioeconomic and climate scenarios, analyzing their influence on both biogenic and anthropogenic CO₂ emissions and their subsequent impact on CO₂ concentrations. The connection between socioeconomic scenarios and modeling is established through land use and anthropogenic emissions. Land use data were produced at high resolution using DEMETER (PNLL), while emissions were generated using the EMIMO model (UPM). Climatic conditions, biogenic emissions and CO₂ transport were simulated locally with the WRF/Chem-VPRM model. To assess the impacts, two sets of simulations were performed: R1, representing the 2018 baseline socioeconomic scenario, and R2, reflecting future socioeconomic scenarios. Impacts were calculated as the difference between R2 and R1. The simulations, covering the period 2015-2050, were performed for the national, regional and urban domains over Madrid, Spain. These simulations are based on boundary conditions provided by global climate models and involve dynamic downscaling of four different scenarios: SSP126 (Sustainability), SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 (Fossil fuel-based development). This study is part of the DISTENDER project, an EU-funded initiative aimed at developing a methodological framework to support the integration of adaptation and mitigation strategies. This framework incorporates participatory methods and combines quantitative and qualitative analyses to improve understanding of climate change risks, as well as interactions, synergies and trade-offs between strategies. The simulations aim to shed light on how environmental and socioeconomic conditions, such as temperature, land use patterns, and atmospheric CO₂ levels, are likely to evolve under different future scenarios. Keywords - Biogenic CO2 fluxes, Land use impacts, Socio-economic scenarios