Paper Title
DETAILED EVALUATION OF FUTURE LAND USE EFFECTS ON VEGETATION CO2 EMISSIONS: A MADRID, SPAIN CASE STUDY

Abstract
The impacts of future land use on biogenic CO2 emission fluxes were calculated for the climate and socio-economic scenarios SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585. Biogenic CO2 fluxes are influenced by temperature, radiation and vegetation, which are represented by land use types and affect CO2 concentrations. For this purpose, high-resolution meteorological and land-use variables were generated. Vegetation indices were derived from the land use data and used to estimate biogenic emissions. These calculations were applied in three nested computational domains centred on Madrid (Spain). Two simulations were carried out to assess the impacts: R1, representing the current socio-economic scenario of 2018 (baseline year), and R2, reflecting future socio-economic scenarios. Impacts were determined by calculating the difference between R2 and R1. This research is part of the EU-funded DISTENDER project, which aims to create a methodological framework to guide the integration of adaptation and mitigation strategies through participatory approaches. The results show that changes in land use significantly affect biogenic CO2 fluxes and concentrations. Large conservation efforts (SSP1-2.6) increase CO2 sequestration and reduce concentrations, while rapid economic growth and deforestation (SSP5-8.5) lead to increased emissions and decreased sequestration capacity. Local climate, vegetation and land use practices are key factors in the dynamics of CO2 fluxes. Keywords - Biogenic CO2 fluxes, Land use impacts, Socio-economic scenarios