Paper Title
Forecasting the Annual Cereal Production of Iraq Using Arima Methodology
Abstract
This study forecasts Iraq's annual cereal production using ARIMA methodology, analyzing data from 1961 to 2018 with a sample size of 58. Out of several adequate models and depending on some statistical criteria, the best model identified was ARIMA (0,1,1). Forecasts for 2019 to 2025 indicate that the average cereal production will be approximately (4034020) metric tons annually. These results provide critical insights for policymakers and agricultural planners in Iraq, aiding in the development of strategies for sustainable agricultural growth and food security. This analysis highlights the importance of robust forecasting models in managing and planning agricultural outputs in the region.
Keywords - Forecasting, Cereal Production, ARIMA, Box-Jenkins, Statistical Criteria.