EFFECTS OF THE CRISIS ON AGRICULTURE IN UKRAINE: A MIXED INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS
Abstract - The purpose of this study is to use a mixed input-output model to analyze and quantify the likely effects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the latter's agricultural economy. Using the latter, the study also assesses the extent of the effects of the conflict on macroeconomic aggregates (GDP, foreign trade, etc.) and on other sectoral activities in 2022 compared with 2021.
The choice of the agricultural sector was motivated firstly by the fact that, in recent years, Ukraine has become a major player on the international commodities markets, producing and exporting large quantities of cereals and oilseeds, and secondly by the weight it represents in the GDP of the local economy.
Depending on the scenario adopted, estimates indicate a loss of GDP in 2022 of -7.55% compared with a situation in which the war had not taken place. The simulations show that the sectors that are the biggest consumers of agricultural products, such as refined petroleum, the automotive industry and the chemicals industry, are the hardest hit by this shock.
Keywords - Agricultural sector, Leontief, Mixed Input-Output Model, Supply shock, Ukraine.