Paper Title
Statistical Analysis of the Bullwhip Effect in a Special Supply Chain Structure

According to the bullwhip effect (BWE), demand variability increases as customer orders move upward the supply chain. A special two-stage supply chain with one manufacturer and one retailer is used to forecast, quantify, and measure the bullwhip effect. Based on ABC analysis, a single product is chosen to represent the highest annual consumption of class "A" items. For stock replenishment, the retailer adopts "order-up-to" inventory policy. Statistical analysis is employed to analyze and evaluate the impact of BWE. Moving average and exponential smoothing forecasting algorithms are used by retailers to forecast demand in advance. According to the findings, the extent of the increase in variability is dependent on the forecasting method used. In addition, information sharing and customer loyalty are thought to be important elements in decreasing the bullwhip effect. Keywords - Supply Chain Management, Bullwhip Effect, Exponential Smoothing Forecast, Moving Average Forecast, ABC Analysis.