Paper Title
Modeling of Covid-19 Case and Death Counts in Germany by Trend Analysis and Moving Average Method

In this study, covid-19 virus cases and deaths in Germany, in the period of between September 1, 2021 - February 27, 2022, were modeled by the Trend Analysis and simple moving average (SMA). It has been observed that there is a trend in the series and the trend has been corrected after the difference of the series has been taken. Jumps have also been observed at certain periods in the series. In both cases the number of dead gotta trend analysis in linear, quadratic, and cubic regression models examined, the highest determination coefficient (R2) , respectively, with values of 0.994 and 0.990 cubic regression model was considered more appropriate than others. Compared to the cubic regression model and the BHO method, the BHO with the smallest error squared average (MSE) value (615873.463 and 689.262) provided better results. according to the results of the prediction calculated according to the moving averages of 3, it was seen that the increases in the number of cases and deaths will continue. Keywords - Case, death, covid-19, moving average, trend