Paper Title
Determining the Likelihood of Emerging Illegal Landfills Using Statistical Data on the Example of High Mountainous Regions of Georgia (Caucasus)

Abstract
Up to 52% of mixed wastes generated on the territory of Georgia are arbitrarily disposed on the areas adjacent to settlements – river channels, riverbanks, and even on pasturelands, which lead to a sharp deterioration in the ecological state of these areas. The aim of the research is to develop and apply an integrated methodology for the determination of the likelihood of emerging illegal landfills in the most densely populated high mountainous rural border regions of Georgia. To calculate the likelihood of emerging illegal landfills through surveys of investigating regions municipal services and local residents the necessary statistical data were collected and processed, such as the number of wastes per capita; the number of inhabitants; capacity and quantity of containers; frequency and efficiency of waste collection. Using airbrushing and experimental fieldwork, the theoretical results of determining the probability of emerging illegal landfills in the study area have been checked. The comparative analysis of theoretical and experimental results showed that the theoretically obtained results depend on the reliability of the data available in the municipality services and in this case, are in good agreement with the real situation. The research found that the likelihood of emerging illegal landfills in the study mountainous rural territories of Georgia mainly depends on the availability of infrastructure of the settlements and average varies from 40% to 60%. Keywords - Illegal Landfills, Likelihood, Mathematical Formula.