Paper Title
Investigating the Influence of Exchange Rate Volatility on Bilateral Trade in China

Abstract
This paper aims to investigate the influence of exchange rate volatility on China’s bilateral trade with its top five trade partners, namely the United States, Japan, Hong Kong(SAR)China, South Korea, and Germany. The quarterly data covering from 2000 to 2018 will be used. This paper uses GJR-GARCH model to measure the value of RMB exchange rate volatility. The threshold models are used to find the threshold variables for every import and export models of all the selected countries, then using different selected threshold variables to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on China’s bilateral trade with these five countries. The findings suggest that RMB exchange rate volatility has different multiple threshold effects caused by GDP growth rate and inflation rate on China’s import and export for different selected countries; and both the impact directions and intensities of exchange rate volatility on China’s bilateral trade growth changes as the values of threshold variables of each country increase in different import and export models for each selected country. Keywords - Exchange Rate Volatility, China, Bilateral Trade, GJR-GARCH, Threshold Effect