Effects of Ecological and Environmental Factors on Tropical African Diseases: A Geostatistical Analysis
This paper focused ongeostatistical analysis of epidemiological risk based on ecological and environmental characteristics of the study area. Fifty-two sampling points were randomly located, and water samples taken. The methodology employed was based on uncertainty and multi-criteria which contribute to the increase in the risk of epidemic. The Fuzzy logic, Anselin local moran’s I, Variogram and Semivarigram, Chi-square, correlation and spline surface interpolation analysis wereperformed using ArcGIS 10.1 and ENVI 4.7 software. The disease surveillance and predictive maps was produced. The final susceptibility map based on fuzzy logic shows that around 8.08km² out of 460.12km² within the study area is under very low level of epidemic risk, 364.98km² under low risk level while 87.06km² under moderate which amount to 1.75%, 79.32% and 18.92% respectively.Diarrhoea and Typhoid were found as the most common and rampant water borne disseises in the area. Diarrhoea was significantly correlated with schistosomiasis and gastroemteritis. Further studies are needed to be conducted in other local government areas of the state and Nigeria to have wider knowledge of the effects of environment and ecology on human related diseases.
Keywords - Geospatial analyses, Tropical diseases, Environmental change, Nigeria.