Forecasting Travel Demand Modeling of Kabul City-2025 Considering Age Grouping
In a rapid urbanizing city such as Kabul, there is a surge of traffic in all metropolitan areas due to migration from rural to urban areas. As traffic on the roads is increasing regularly causing traffic jams on the city roads. There is a need to forecast traffic demand of the city to simulate current as well as future scenario on the roads with a suitable modeling process by considering the age groups of people, which will eventually help in transport planning to meet future travel demand of the city. A four stage modeling process was used to model travel demand for a city. In the present study, the four-stage model was developed for Kabul to determine travel demand for the base years 2008 and future year 2025. Person Trip Surveys (PTS) were used to determine the travel behavior of the trip makers and were further used to calibrate the model by considering parameters including young, medium, and old age groups. In this study, the PTS used for modeling considered data for car ownership, gender, age, purpose, mode, origin, destination, age group, and family size. Improper data were removed through the analysis. After the manipulation of model from the PTS, the model was constructed for young, medium, and old age groups and found total trips between zones using three main modes of transport, of which public transport was chosen the most in the city. As a result of the model estimation, as the trips are increasing, the preference for the public modes are decreasing and the preference for private transport is increasing so we need to develop a proper and reliable public transport system in the city to turn attention of the inhabitants to use public transportation for their purposes.
Keywords - Rapid Urbanization, Transport Planning, Person Trip Survey, Travel demand Modeling, Age Group.