Paper Title
The Effect of External Shocks to the Selected Countries in ASEAN Economy Using Global VAR Analysis

Abstract
This paper uses a Global Vector Auto Regression (GVAR) model to assess the effects of external shocks which is oil price shock from Subprime crisis in 2008 on three variables in the ASEAN area economy except Lao, include Consumer Price Index (CPI) and short-run interest rate. The data sources of this paper are panel data of nine country in ASEAN area economy (except Lao PDR), the data used is annualized of 24 years from 1994 to 2017. This paper applies a global vector autoregressive model (Global VAR) to determine the effect of oil price shock. The impact from this shock effect in each country shows that it has a greater effect on CPI and short-run interest rate. Keywords - Subprime crisis, Oil price shock, ASEAN area and Global Analysis VAR.