A Dynamic Model to Increase Iran's National Interests by the Oil Supply System in the World Market
An examination of international political economy history shows that the discovery of huge oil reservoirs has been playing an essential role in defining and supporting the countries national interest. Certainly, oil reserves are intergenerational property which should be exploited to enhance national interest in the long run. In this research, focusing on the economic aspect of the national interest, dynamics of Iran’s national interest are modeled considering the developments in the oil industry and international oil market. The structure of production capacity expansion, production rate, and revenues of the domestic and international sale of oil and oil products are modeled. Simulation results described in five scenarios as follows: growth in the oil market, current status, the downturn in the oil market, OPEC market share target, and OPEC revenue target. Finally, to increase national economic interest for 2025, a policy option is formulated through a simulation-optimization process based on model sensitivity to national policy-making parameters.
Keywords - Economic National Interest, Oil Price, Oil Supply, Oil Demand, System Dynamics, Scenario Analysis, Iran.