Brazil’s Stock Market: What Happened with the Price of the Stocks Recommended by Independent House of Analysis
The capital market can be defined as a union of institutions and instruments that enables the transactions of securities, and so facilitating resources transfers between buyers and sellers. Currently in this market,there are plenty of opinion-forming companies,called independent houses of analysis, which make financial suggestions for their readers. Considering the importance of this topic, this research aims to analyze the price of the stocksrecommended by Brazil’s largest independent house of analysis, through themabnormal returns. We studied 28 stocks that received a purchase recommendation between January 2015 and October 2018.These stocks were grouped by segment, totaling 11 segments, and we calculated the abnormal returns (AR)on the day of recommendation (AR0,j), on the subsequent day of the recommendation (AR1,j) and on two subsequent days after the recommendation (AR2,j), using Brazil’s most important stock market index (IBOVESPA) asreference. For the statistics purpose weused the T-Test and the ANOVA, adopting an error of 5%. As the result, we founda positive mean abnormal return on the day of the stock purchase recommendation and on the two subsequent days (AR0,j = 1.15%, AR1,j = 0.27% and AR2,j = 0.21%). The ANOVA test showed that there was no statistical difference between the abnormal return analysis of the distinct days (p = 0.1143). However, the T-test indicated a statistical difference between AR0,j and AR1,j (p = 0.0450) and between AR0,j and AR2,j (p = 0.0320), but not between AR1,j and AR2,j (p=0.8911).
Index Terms - Abnormal Return, Brazilian Stock Market, Independent House of Analysis, IBOVESPA