Statistical Analysis of Precipitation Trend for Drava Flood Plain Region in Hungary
Knowledge on the spatial variability and temporal trends of precipitation are essential for efficient management of water resources, agriculture and for the proper design of hydro related schemes such as clean water supply, reservoir, and distribution channels. This research analyzed the distribution, variability and trends of rainfall over Drava flood plain region. The region was observed and controlled by three meteorological stations, namely, Drávaszabolcs, Villány, and Kémes, respectively. Records of rainfall data for the period from 2000 to 2018 has been obtained from Hungarian Meteorological Agency. Charts were established to show the variation of trends within the days, months and years of the zones. Statistical analysis (linear regression method) was used to evaluate any significant difference among the three Stations and within the daily, months and years. Significant differences were observed among the three Stations. However the rainfall trends within the aforementioned zones were oscillatory. It is observed that the highest annual mean rainfall was 1056.66 mm and the lowest was 382.68 mm. Contribution of the seasonal rainfall to the annual rainfall is highest during the summer period (30.34%), followed by spring period (28.12 %), autumn period (22.54 %) and winter period (19.0 %) in the decreasing order. Regarding to daily precipitation, the analysis clearly indicated that the peak daily precipitation was 85 mm and maximum number of precipitation events in year were 12 events. Linear regression analysis revealed upward and downward trend in the data in some months and years.
Keywords - Drava Flood Plain, Linear Regression, Management, Precipitation, Trend.