Paper Title
Cyclical Classification of Commodities Prices and the Stock Markets

Abstract
This paper investigates systematic patterns of lead, coincidence or lag on the prices of the most important commodities traded in the stock markets, Gold and of Oil, taking of as basic chronologies that provided by the turning points of the stock markets. The NBER approach is applied to identify turning points in the American Stock Market (using S&P500 index), the price of Gold and the price of Oil from January 1997 through January 2018. The "G" program is used to analyze the delays between the turning points, in order to classify the series according to the cyclical signal with respect to the stock market into leading, lagged, or coincident. The results of the cyclical classification show that the evolution of the price of gold and oil are not leading variables with respect to the S&P 500 at the time of performing the study. Hence, these variables cannot be used when predicting the end of downward and upward trends in the stock markets. Index Terms - Turning points, Cyclical Classification, Commodities Prices, Stock Markets, forecasting.