Paper Title
Predicting Spatio-Temporal Urban Growth in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia using a Cellular Automata-Markov Model

Abstract
Assessing land-use change can provide essential information to aid land management and planning. The city of Tabuk, Saudi Arabia is under increasing pressure from urban growth due to increase in population and a booming economy. To predict areas of likely future urban expansion for Tabuk city, urban data were extracted from satellite imagery for 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2015. The Cellular Automata – Markov model was used to create a model based on historical land use and land cover (LULC) data for factors affecting urban growth, including biophysical and proximate data. Urban growth in 2005 and 2015 was predicted and compared to observed data to assess prediction accuracy. Results for 2005 and 2015 indicated prediction capability of the model for to have a total agreement for predicted and reference data were 89 and 98 %, respectively. The predicted land use pattern of the study area for the years 2025 and 2035 was examined, and the future urban transition predicted an increase in urban area of about 137 km2. Results predicted a clear encroachment on agricultural areas, with an expected loss of 10%. If the current trends continue, the urban growth will have adverse impacts on arid ecosystem function. New policies are, therefore, required for urban sustainability. This study provides beneficial information that could aid urban planners and policymakers for more appropriate plans in Tabuk in the pursuit of Saudi Arabia’s 2030 vision for sustainable urban and economic development. Keywords - Arid environment; Prediction, Remote sensing; Tabuk, Cellular Automata-Markov.