Interest Rate Regimes and Private Investment in Nigeria, 1970-2016.
Given the role that private investment plays in the development of an economy as regard achieving macroeconomic goals, there is need to examine those variables that determine it and their various effects on private investment in Nigeria. As such, increase in private investment will increase employment, out –put and exports. Accordingly, this study set out to examine the effect of interest rate regimes on private investment in Nigeria from 1970-2016. The research utilized the modern theory of interest rate (a combination of classical and Keynesian theories). Time series data were sourced from secondary sources like Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin various years and World Bank Development indicators (WDI). The data were analysed using OLS method of estimation and the Autoregressive Distributional lag (ARDL) techniques. The data used were on private investment (PINV) as dependent variable while real interest rate (RINR), interest rate regime proxy by a dummy variable (DUMt), inflation (INF), exchange rate (EXR), financial sector efficiency (FSE), fiscal deficit (FD) and foreign direct investment (FDI) served as independent variables. The results of the analysis revealed that RINR, INF and FSE were not statistically significant in determining private investment while DUMt, EXR, FDI and FD were statistically significant in determining private investment. The policy implication of this finding is that interest rate regimes like changing from regulation to deregulation can affect private investment negatively. Based on these findings, the paper therefore recommends that the government should allow deregulation of interest rate in order to boost savings and in turn increase private investment in the Nigerian economy. This can be achieved by the apex monetary authority (CBN) if it is consistent with the policy of interest rate deregulation but with caution- adherence to the Prudential Guidelines in implementing interest rate policy as enshrined in Banks’ and other Financial Institutions’ (BOFI) Decree of 1991(Variously Amended).
Index Terms - Interest Rate, Regime and Private Investment