Paper Title
Quantifying Chance Of Engineering Success

Abstract
Many decisions taken both at the early stages of large and highly complex engineering projects are injudicious due to the poor availability of information. Risky decisions are made leading to budget overruns, schedule impacts/delays, technical failures and ultimately a disappointed customer. This research creates a new method based on a generic enterprise architecture that allows quantification of chance of project success. The method is illustrated by quantifying the risk level of three engineering projects in the naval maritime environment. Index Termsó Complex engineering projects, decision making, chance of success, quantification of risk, 3PE system model.