Estimation of the Market Forces of Sovereign Bonds
In a distinction or discernment, the human rationality amounts in one of the three scenarios. For the first, the reaction (the time given for the thinking was limited, it’s going from of a few seconds, minutes, days or a few weeks) and consequently, a decision following upon this kind of reaction on a financial market (bid or ask) obeys only to the logic of speculation. Secondly, it’s a question of giving more time for the thinking by an analysis which can be in static order (to find one or several relations between the parameters) or in dynamic order (to understand the evolution of the parameters in the time), and consequently, this approach leads the investors towards decisions which obey generally to a strategy of anticipation. In third and the last, it’s about the systematic approach and, which consists to combining between the structural and behavioral aspect (construction of a global vision from the sub-systems and from their interactions). This vision so proposed in our communication will have for merit at least on one hand, to understand the equilibrium or disequilibrium of factors of the financial market and, on the other hand, to estimate the forces of the market established on the basis of the phenomenon of the attraction and the repulsion of the sovereign bonds with a various maturities.
Index Terms - Sovereign Bond, Maturity, Interest Rate, Duration.