Trading Consistency, Instability And Substitutions: A Case Of Imports To China Using Vector Autoregressive Regression
China has a large population that means China has a big demand for importing products, thus any country or continent who can become China’s trading partner will get a big export market. Consequently, forecasting China’s importing direction is meaningful for those countries and continents who want to hold China’s international trading markets. Vector Autoregressive Regression(VAR) model is the natural tool for forecasting, it is wildly used for multivariate macroeconomic time series which can describe the dynamic structure of the variables. VAR is used for predicting, the current values of a set of variables are partly explained by past values of the variables involved. This paper employs VAR model to investigate the dynamism of imports of China during 1993 to 2014. It discovered trading consistency for Asia, Africa, South America, Oceania and North America. It also found trading instability for Europe and trading substitution for Europe and Africa.
Keywords - China, import, trading consistency, trading instability, trading substitution
JEL classification: F10, F12, F13, O50