Dynamical Downscaling Tool For Climate Impacts Over Urban Areas
This paper presents a dynamical downscaling methodology for climate change impact assessments on the urban climate and air pollution over urban area. The outputs of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) provides future climate scenarios, and its coupling with Weather Research and Forecasting and Chemical (WRF/Chem) model. The output from the WRF/Chem model at 1 km resolution is used to drive a micro-scale model, MICROSYS. The use of the system is showed conducting yearly simulations for present (2011) and future (2030, 2050 and 2100) climate conditions, considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 IPCC climate scenarios over three European cities: Madrid, Milan, and London (Kensington-Chelsea area). The modelling system was used using 2011 emissions as control run, because we want to investigate the effects on the global climate on the actual (2011) cities. Effects of the global climate at different scales, regional, urban at street are showed based on climate and air pollution indicators. The results of these simulations suggest that climate will have an important effect on urban meteorology and air pollution over the next several decades, specially under the IPCC 8.5 scenario.The presented tool is useful for assessing the impact of future climate on urban areas and helping how cities can adapt to reduce exposure and sensitivity to those impacts, increasing resilience to climate change.
Index Termsó Dynamical downscaling, WRF/Chem, CFD, climate impact, air pollution.